Hvor går markederne hen?

Generel debat Makro
21

Her er en lille opdatering på aktiemarkedet. Som nævnt i tidligere oplæg, er S&P 500 gået ind i et bull-marked, og det har efterladt Wall Streets topstrateger delt om fremtiden. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strateger forventer, at gevinsterne vil fortsætte, da andre sektorer indhenter teknologiaktiernes flammende rally. På den anden side peger Morgan Stanleys, Michael Wilson, tilbage til bear markedet i 1940’erne, hvor S&P 500 ralliede 24% før det vendte tilbage til en ny lav.

S&P 500 gik ind i et teknisk bull-marked i sidste uge efter at have opnået 20% fra sin oktoberlav, da investorerne satser på robust økonomisk vækst midt i en pause i centralbankernes rentestigninger, en nøglefører for teknologiindustrien. Fokus er nu på Federal Reserves politikmøde denne uge, med den centrale bank endelig forventet at tage en pause efter mere end et år med rentestigninger.

Wilson mener, at denne pause kunne markere slutningen på rallyet “i en ironisk twist”, da likviditeten strammer til. Han forventer, at S&P 500’s indtjening falder 16% i år før en skarp bedring i 2024. Dette står i kontrast til forudsigelser om et fald på kun 2,4% for 2023.

Hos Goldman Sachs ser de dog mere optimistisk på tingene. De mener, at S&P 500 vil fortsætte med at klatre, da sektorer ud over tech indhenter. David Kostin, en af strategerne hos Goldman Sachs, skrev i en note den 9. juni, at “Prior episodes of sharply narrowing breadth have been followed by a catch-up from a broader valuation re-rating”. Siden 1980 har S&P 500 set ni sådanne nøgleepisoder, som blev fulgt af gevinster i andre aktier, der i sidste ende gavnede indekset.

Tidlige tegn viser allerede, med Russell 2000-indekset der overgår S&P 500 siden begyndelsen af juni. Kostin forventer nu, at S&P 500 vil slutte året omkring 4.500 point, hvilket øger hans mål fra 4.000 og antyder gevinster på næsten 5% fra dens fredag lukning.

Historien kan være på Kostins side. Bank of America Corp. strateg Savita Subramanian sagde sidste uge, at en analyse, der går tilbage til 1950’erne, viser, at indekset gik frem 92% af tiden i de 12 måneder efter det bekræftede et bull marked.

Hold jer opdateret om udviklingen, og lad os håbe, at opturen fortsætter!

22

Nogle aktier skinner særligt igennem, når bear-markedet endelig aflives. Tag for eksempel detailhandelskæden Target, som er en stor favorit i nye bull-markeder. Aktierne i selskabet toppede S&P 500 hvert år efter de sidste fem gange, markedet ralliede 20% fra et bear-markedets lavpunkt. Og Target-aktien opnåede en kraftfuld stigning på i gennemsnit 104,5% i disse perioder, hvilket er mere end nogen anden S&P 500-aktie.

Her er nogle andre aktier, der har klaret sig godt, når bjørnemarkeder dør:

  • Target (TGT): 104,5% (Forbrugervarer)
  • TJX Companies (TJX): 81,1% (Forbrugerdiscretionære)
  • Tyler Technologies (TYL): 79,7% (Informationsteknologi)
  • Host Hotels & Resorts (HST): 79,7% (Fast ejendom)
  • Ford Motor (F): 62,8% (Forbrugerdiscretionære)

Og listen fortsætter​. Er der nogen som holder øje med disse typer aktier, nu hvor bull-markedet er i fuld sving?

23

change in FED rate since 2018
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The next rate decision from the Federal Bank is fast approaching. By Wednesday evening (European time) we will know the outcome. The markets pin their hopes on the Fed leaving rates unchanged this time. And not only that, but also that we have seen the last raise of this cycle. This is the main reason why the markets have been overwhelmingly positive in the last few weeks.

If we look ahead, it seems that a soft landing is on the cards. The trajectory on inflation has been downward for most of the year so far, while at the same time economic activity hasn’t gone down dramatically. There may be some minor shocks yet to come but for now it looks as if the markets could stay clear of a dramatic downturn, otherwise predicted by some analysts.

Today (Tuesday) we get CPI numbers from the U.S. but as the FOMC meeting has already started, it is fair to assume that all or most of the members of the committee have already made up their mind about this rate decision. Then on Thursday, the ECB will announce its Main Refinancing Rate, which is the European equivalent of the Federal Funds Rate. Here a small hike of 25 basis points is expected, which is a sign that the ECB remains worried about elevated inflation numbers in the Eurozone.

24

This article from Investor’s Business Daily discusses the potential shift in dynamics in the S&P 500 due to the rise of certain midcap stocks. Here are the key points:

  1. While large-cap companies have dominated the market recently, some smaller firms are starting to make significant gains. For example, nine S&P MidCap 400 stocks, including industrials Hubbell and Builders FirstSource, and tech Dynatrace, are now valued at $13 billion or more, making them larger than 15% of the stocks in the S&P 500. The growth of these midcap stocks could be indicative of future big-cap winners​.
  2. The recent rebound in small and midcap flows is significant and indicates a changing market landscape. The stocks that are considered large-cap might be evolving​.
  3. Despite the S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) outperforming the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 Trust (MDY) and SPDR Portfolio S&P 600 SmallCap ETF (SPSM), some midcap stocks have seen substantial growth. For instance, Hubbell, a maker of electrical components, has seen its stock increase nearly 37% this year, bringing the company’s worth to $17.2 billion. If it were in the S&P 500, it would be the 363rd-most-valuable stock in the index​.
  4. The article also highlights the potential reshuffling in the S&P 500 with the example of Dish Networks being replaced by Palo Alto Networks due to the latter’s higher valuation. Several other changes might be on the horizon as nearly 35 stocks in the S&P 500 are valued at less than $10 billion, significantly below the average market capitalization of stocks in the index. Other noteworthy midcap stocks include Builders FirstSource, which has seen an 85% surge in shares this year, and Dynatrace, with a 34.8% increase in its value​​.
  5. The article provides a list of the most valuable S&P 400 stocks, including Hubbell, Builders FirstSource, Dynatrace, Reliance Steel & Aluminum, Westlake, Graco, Jabil, Deckers Outdoor, and Watsco. These companies represent a range of sectors from industrials to information technology and materials, each showing significant growth and market value​​.
  6. While the S&P 500’s outperformance this year has drawn a lot of attention from investors, the rise of midcap stocks serves as a reminder that the composition of big-cap companies is subject to change​​.

I find it interesting to observe the dynamics of the market and how the rise of these midcap stocks could shape the future of the S&P 500. This perspective encourages investors to keep an eye on these up-and-coming stocks, as they may soon play a more prominent role in the index. This article provides valuable insights for those interested in broadening their investment horizons.