Jeg har samlet mange af 2023-strategirapporterne fra de store banker. Måske er de hjælpsomme?
Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs | 2023 Outlooks
JP Morgan: Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2023: Too good to be true | J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Morgan Stanley: Global Investment Strategy Outlook 2023 | Morgan Stanley
BNP Paribas: https://www.bnpparibas-am.com/portfolio-perspectives/investment-outlook-2023-investing-in-an-age-of-transformation/
Credit Suisse: Investment Outlook 2023 – a fundamental reset
Legendary investor Howard Marks and Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management also published his latest memo titled “What really matters”. It is an absolute must-read!!
Link: What Really Matters?
Fuldstændig enig, Philip!
Synes den her tabel fra JP Morgan ligeledes er meget interessant - banken forventer, at aktier over de næste 10-15 år vil give 7,9% i afkast p.a.
I tabellen har JP Morgan opstillet de største strukturelle risikoscenarier til denne forecast. Hvilken risiko er den største tænker I?
Vores aktiechef, Michael Friis, har i dag offentliggjort markedsoverblikket for november måned. For den private investor er det helt sikkert læsværdigt.
Relevante temaer i markedsoverblikket for november:
Link: https://hcandersencapital.dk/markedsoverblik/aktiemarkedet-med-friis-november/
Bliver utrolig spændende at følge med i, hvad der specielt sker i Kina ift. deres håndtering af COVID! 
Helt enig, @Asbjorn! Kan kun opfordre til at følge med i nyhedsstrømmen ang. Kina. Personligt bruger jeg meget twitter - følger blandt andet https://twitter.com/SofiaHCBBG, som dagligt opdaterer på situationen i Kina (også fra et investeringsperspektiv).
Håber I finder nedenstående lige så interessant, som jeg selv gør?
Saxo Bank har i dag offentliggjort deres “Outrageous Predictions 2023” under titlen: The War Economy. I årets sidste måned udgiver Saxo Bank hvert år en række forudsigelser om det kommende år, som ikke ses som sandsynlige begivenheder/udfald, men mere som forudsigelser, som kan udfordre status quo i de økonomiske forecast modeller.
Som de selv beskriver: “This is not about being right, it is about challenging the status quo”
Hvilke predictions finder I mest interessante?
Hej Marcus,
Super med Saxo 2023-rapporten. Jeg synes, det er interessant, at konsensusestimaterne for S&P FY 2023 er omkring 4.000 - meget lidt ændring fra i dag…
Lidt nysgerrig på om nogle har prøvet ChatGPT? Synes det er revolutionerende!
Jeg synes, det er helt vildt. Jeg tror, det kan være en konkurrent til google-søgning.
Even a slice leads to a very big pie…
Jeg tror, at chat GPT vil forstyrre industrier. Dem, der hurtigt forstår, hvordan man bruger det, kan få en stor fordel. Hvad synes du?
Helt enig, @Philip! Jeg har lige vedhæftet en god artikel, hvis man vil lære fænomenet at kende: Here’s What To Know About OpenAI’s ChatGPT—What It’s Disrupting And How To Use It
Læser I også den legendariske Howard Marks’ memos? 
Tjek lige nedenstående tabel, som viser forandringer i investeringsmiljøet fra 2009-2021 til i dag.
Tror I ligesom Howard Marks, at vi står over for en såkaldt “sea change”?
Læs med her: Sea Change
Howard Marks er genial, en af de bedste investorer i sæneste tid.
Han læser også sine memoer igennem i en podcast. Link: Spotify
Overall, I completely agree. I think we are entering a period that will be new to most investors.
In my view, there are a few factors for this:
We have entered a period of structurally higher inflation because of A) Demographics, and B) Peak cheap energy, and C) rates can’t go any lower.
Point 1: Demographics
For the last decades, the world has benefitted from the industrialisation of China and South East Asia, which has added hundreds of millions of people to the global labour market (Deflationary). The demographics in these nations are now less favourable, particularly in China, where populations are ageing, and urbanisation is almost complete. I think ageing populations globally will now become a larger driving force (inflationary).
However, if India (median age: 28) and/or Africa (median age: 18) develop into new manufacturing hubs, this outlook could change.
Point 2: Peak Cheap Energy
Cheap energy has been a driving deflationary force over the last decades. Germany became an export giant benefitting from its access to cheap Russian gas, while US Shale and OPEC production have kept global energy prices low. However, this is also changing. The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines has hugely increased the price of European energy and created a larger bid for LNG and oil, driving prices higher. In addition, there are signs existing energy suppliers are finding it increasingly difficult to increase output. OPEC+ has, for the first time, been struggling to meet quotas rather than consistently going over, while US Shale producers are preferring to repurchase their own shares than invest in new production (because output/per unit of capital has fallen?? - maybe). Either way, with windfall taxes on oil companies across the west, the push for ESG and no grid-scale energy storage, it appears clear that the next decade will see higher global energy prices (inflationary).
The tail-risk to this thesis is Venezuela realising its output potential, it is the country with the largest proven oil reserves (slightly edging Saudi Arabia).
Point 3
The third point is that even if we still had deflationary forces working in the global economy’s favour, interest rates cannot move any lower. We tested the zero lower bound (ZLB) during the Covid-19 pandemic, with much of Europe experimenting with negative rates. While I think there is a possibility we could near these levels once more, it is not a foundation for a functional economy and cannot be sustained without QE and a return to inflation.
The counterargument to this is that the development of AI could bring about enough productivity gains (deflationary), to allow rates to stay low without creating inflation.
Overall, as a result of my opinion that we are entering a period of structurally higher inflation, we cannot continue on the path of lower and lower interest rates, and this will change the performance of broad index funds. Instead, to outperform the market over the coming decade, I think we will need to pick quality stocks rather than broad indexes.
Rigtig gode pointer @Philip! Tillæg dertil den grønne omstilling, som vil kræve massive investeringer, samt deglobaliseringen, som ligeledes vil kræve investeringer i den “fysiske” økonomi - alt dette med et opadgående pres på priser
Also great points!! I would argue both are also structurally inflationary…? Especially with higher costs of capital as a result of higher rates
I read a fantastic article from Lyn Alden last night about bonds, which has some links to the themes we have been discussing.
But for anyone wanting an introduction to how bonds work and how they function on the secondary market, I would highly recommend reading this.
Lyn Alden is one of my favourite Macro voices at the moment. She has a great understanding of the monetary system and the mechanism behind QE. You can learn a lot about why QE led to an expansion of asset prices rather than broad inflation through her work and podcast appearances.
Har du et link, @Philip? Er super interesseret. TINA (there is no alternative to stocks) har jo været på spil i flere år, men måske der er et alternativ nu.
